關於中國的新聞和資訊頻繁見諸印度媒體報道之上，印度網友對中國日新月異的發展感到驚異，有人在問答網站Quora上問道：印度到2025年可以達到中國今天的發展水平嗎？這個問題引來各國網友的熱議，從發展差距到經濟體制差異，他們應用翔實的經濟資料和理論針對該問題專門撰文進行了專業的剖析和解答。
問題：印度到2025年能達到中國今天的發展水平嗎？
印度官員西開普•庫魯的回答
Many Indians may think that China and India are both developing countries。 There may be some gaps between the two countries， but the gap is not that big。
很多印度人也許認為中國和印度都是發展中國家，可能兩國之間存在一些差距，但差距並沒有那麼大。
Modern China and India were established almost at the same time and had the same population； In recent years， India‘s GDP growth rate is faster than that of China， and China began reform 10 years earlier than India。 Therefore， India only lags behind China for 10 years， and with India’s other advantages， India can surpass China around 2025。 Even if India cannot surpass China by 2025， India can reach China‘s current level （2020） at least by 2025。
現代中國和印度幾乎同時建立並擁有差不多的人口，由於近年來印度的GDP增長速度快於中國，而中國比印度早10年開始改革，因此印度最多也就落後中國10年，並且憑藉印度的其他優勢，印度可以在2025年左右超越中國。即使印度不能在2025年前超過中國，印度至少可以在2025年達到中國目前（2020年）的水平。
However， looking at problems with emotion often leads to wrong conclusions。 Data will not deceive people。 We need to think with data。 Let’s see how big the current gap between the two countries is， and then you can judge whether India can catch up with the current China by 2025。
但是帶著感情看問題往往會得出錯誤的結論，資料不會騙人，我們需要用資料來思考，讓我們看看兩國目前的差距有多大，然後你就可以判斷到2025年印度能否趕上當前的中國。
1： By 2019， the number of “Fortune Global 500 enterprises” in China and India will be 129 and 7 respectively， with a gap of 129 / 7 = 18。4 times
1：到2019年，中國和印度的“財富世界500強企業”數量分別為129家和7家，差距為129/7=18.4倍
2： In 2018， China‘s and India’s foreign exchange reserves were US $3。1 trillion and US $0。39 trillion respectively， so the gap is 3。1 / 0。39 = 7。9 times
2：2018年中國和印度的外匯儲備分別為3.1萬億美元和0.39萬億美元，所以差距是3.1/0.39=7.9倍
3： There are 1。38 million patent applications in China and 46000 patent applications in India， with a gap of 1。38 million / 46000 = 30 times
3：中國專利申請總量138萬件，印度專利申請總量4.6萬件，差距138萬件/4.6萬件=30倍
4： The total number of industrial designs in China and India in 2020 is 630400 and 17800 respectively， so the gap is 63。04 / 1。78 = 35。4 times
4：中國和印度2020年的工業設計總數分別為63.04萬和1.78萬件，因此差距為63.04/1.78=35.4倍
5。 In 2019， the total mileage of subway tracks in China and India is 5100km and 400km respectively， so the gap is 5100 / 400 = 12。7 times
5.2019年，中國和印度的地鐵軌道總里程分別為5100公里和400公里，因此差距為5100/400=12.7倍
6： In 2018， the total exports of China and India were US $2。66 trillion and US $0。53 trillion respectively。 So the gap is 2。66 / 0。53 = 5 times
6：2018年中國和印度的出口總額分別為2.66和0.53萬億美元。所以差距是2.66/0.53=5倍
7： In 2020， the GDP of China and India will be USD 14。7 trillion and USD 2。68 trillion respectively， so the gap is 14。7 / 2。68 = 5。4 times
7：2020年中國和印度的GDP分別為14.7和2.68萬億美元，所以差距是14.7/2.68=5.4倍
8： By 2019， the steel production of India and China will be 100 million tons and 900 million tons respectively， so the gap is 0。9 / 0。1 = 9 times。
8：到2019年，印度和中國的鋼鐵產量分別為1億噸和9億噸，因此，差距為0.9/0.1=9倍
9： In 2018， the renewable energy output of China and India was 1。837 billion MW and 261 million MW respectively， so the gap is 1。837/0。261 = 7 times， and the data comparison in the past two years has further expanded
9：2018年，中國和印度的可再生能源產量分別為18.37億兆瓦和2.61億兆瓦，所以差距是1.837/0.261=7倍，近兩年的資料對比更是進一步擴大
10： The annual car sales in China and India are 29。1 million and 4 million respectively， so the gap is 29。1 / 4 = 7。3 times
10：中國和印度每年的汽車銷量分別為2910萬輛和400萬輛，所以差距是29.1/4=7.3倍
11： The annual R & D expenditure of China and India is US $451。9 billion and US $66。5 billion respectively， so the gap is 451。9 / 66。5 = 6。8 times
11：中國和印度每年的研發支出分別為4519億美元和665億美元，所以差距是451.9/66.5=6.8倍
12： China accounts for 10 of the world‘s top 20 ports and 7 of the top 10 ports。 India does not have a single port on the list
12：在世界前20個港口中，中國佔10個，在前10個港口中佔7個。印度沒有一個港口在名單上
13： In 2017， China and India attracted 63 million and 10 million foreign tourists respectively。 So the gap is 63 / 10 = 6。3 times
13：2017年，中國和印度分別吸引了6300萬和1000萬外國遊客。所以差距是63/10=6.3倍
China is one belt， one road， and the world’s second largest economy in 2019。 The four largest banks in the world are all owned by China。 China is leading 137 countries to join the “one belt road” project， establishing more than 100 Asian investment banks， competing with the world bank， building iron roads， highways， stadiums， skyscrapers， subway， dams， and other countries all over the world。 Canal。。。 China has also cultivated international companies such as Alibaba， Tencent， Tik， DJI， Lenovo， Xiaomi and Huawei， and led the world in the latest advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence and electric vehicles， let alone manufacturing。
此外，2019年，中國是世界第二大經濟體，世界上四大銀行都歸中國所有，中國還在領導137個國家加入“一帶一路”工程，建立由100多個國家加入的亞投行，與世界銀行競爭，在世界各地修建鐵路、公路、體育場、摩天大廈、地鐵、大壩、運河……中國還培育了阿里巴巴、騰訊、蒂克、DJI、聯想、小米、華為等國際公司，並在人工智慧和電動汽車等最新先進技術方面引領世界，更不用說製造業了。
The above indicators are important economic indicators。 There are other indicators， too many， I can‘t list them one by one。 It should be noted that the above data （except the first data） do not include Hong Kong， Macao and Taiwan。 If these three places are added， the gap between China and India will be greater （for example， Hong Kong’s exports alone will exceed that of India as a whole）。
以上指標均為重要的經濟指標。還有其他指標，數量太多，我不能一一列出。需要注意的是，上述資料（除了第一個資料）不包括香港、澳門和臺灣。如果增加這三個地方，中國和印度之間的差距將更大（例如香港單獨出口就超過整個印度）。
It should be noted that India‘s economic growth rate may not be able to maintain a relatively rapid growth rate in the future。 For example， the National Bank of India lowered its quarterly growth forecast for India up to September 2020 to 4。2% - 4。7%。 In 2020， India’s GDP growth rate is likely to be lower than that of China。 If India‘s economic growth rate cannot even surpass that of China， how can we surpass it as a whole。 Perhaps in terms of per capita GDP， China is still a developing country， but China is a very special example。 Its global economic and political influence is not only stronger than any developing country， but also stronger than most developed countries， second only to the United States。
需要注意的是，印度的經濟增長率在未來可能無法保持相對較快的增長速度。例如，印度國家銀行將截至2020年9月的季度印度增長預測下調至4.2%-4.7%。2020年，印度的GDP增長率很可能低於中國。如果印度的經濟增長率甚至都不能超過中國，何談在整體上進行超越。也許按人均GDP計算，中國仍然是一個發展中國家，但中國是一個非常特殊的例子，其全球經濟和政治影響力不僅比任何發展中國家都強，而且比大多數發達國家都強，僅次於美國。
Therefore， 2025 is only five years away。 Do you think India can achieve the above development in five years？
因此，離2025年只有5年了。你認為印度能在5年內實現上述發展嗎？
印度學者蘇博德•馬瑟的回答
In the 1970s， when our population began to rise rapidly， the Indian government did not realize that rapidly upgrading the level of low-end manufacturing industry was the key to crossing the first stage of development - from a poor country to a middle-income country， which caused the dilemma of India’s development today。 For those who often compare India with China， This is a very relevant issue。 Next， I will talk about India‘s shortcomings from three dimensions：
在20世紀70年代，當我們的人口開始急速攀升時，印度政府還未意識到快速提升低端製造業的層次是跨越第一個發展階段的關鍵——從一個窮國邁向中等收入國家，以至於造成了今日印度發展的窘況，對於那些經常比較印度和中國的人來說，這是一個非常相關的問題。下面，我將從三個維度談談印度的缺陷：
The primary task of economic development is to establish a feasible economic model。
經濟發展的首要任務是建立一個可行的經濟模式。
China’s economic reform was earlier than India‘s。 China’s economic development model is very special in the world and can not be copied in the future， that is， fixed asset investment - export growth - reinvestment。 A more specific description is： huge infrastructure investment - attracting foreign investment - expanding import and export - expanding employment - stimulating domestic demand - all-round economic development。
中國的經濟改革要早於印度。中國的經濟發展模式在世界上來講是非常特殊的，從未來看也是不可複製的， 即固定資產投資―出口增長―再投資，更具體的描述則是：鉅額基礎設施投資―吸引外資―擴大進出口―擴大就業―拉動內需―全面經濟發展。
印度紡織業
India‘s economic development after 1991 is completely another model。 At the beginning of India’s reform in 1991， the problem it faced was that its infrastructure construction was far behind that of East Asian countries， and more than 50% of its population was illiterate。 At the same time， India‘s elite inherited the proficient English thinking and financial tradition from the British。
1991年之後的印度經濟發展則完全是另一套模式，1991年印度改革之初，它所面對的問題是其基礎設施建設遠遠落後於東亞國家，超過50%的人口屬於文盲。 同時，印度的精英階層從英國人手中繼承了純熟的英語思維以及金融傳統。
Based on this situation， the Indian economy finally chose the service industry rather than the manufacturing industry as the breakthrough。 In the early stage of the reform， the focus was mainly on the software industry。 Later， using its deep financial tradition， India established a very perfect financial market。 Compared with China， India’s economic development model can be described as follows： focusing on the development of service industry - using the developed financial market to stimulate international capital to enter the domestic capital market - stimulating consumption - stimulating manufacturing industry - stimulating infrastructure construction - all-round economic development。
基於這種狀況，印度經濟最終選擇以服務業而非製造業作為突破口，改革前期的重點主要放在了軟體業，之後利用其比較深厚的金融傳統，印度建立起了十分完善的金融市場。相比較於中國，印度的經濟發展模式可以做這樣的描述：重點發展服務業―利用金融市場的發達刺激國際資本進入本國資本市場―刺激消費―拉動製造業―拉動基礎設施建設―經濟全面發展。
Compared with China， the essence of India‘s economic model is a jumping development model - Indians try to directly cross the manufacturing stage from the traditional agricultural economy to the service-oriented stage。 However， any jumping behavior is bound to lack stability， and India’s economy is no exception。 In recent years， the continuous and rapid growth of trade deficit has further amplified the instability of Indian economy。 At the same time， the development of manufacturing industry has always been unavoidable。
相對於中國，印度經濟模式的實質就是一種跳躍式的發展模式――印度人試圖從傳統農業經濟直接跨過製造業階段進入以服務業為主的階段，然而，任何跳躍形式的行為都必然會在穩定性上有所欠缺，印度經濟也不會例外。近年來連續高速增長的貿易逆差進一步放大了印度經濟的不穩定性，同時，製造業的發展問題始終是無法迴避的。
The second focus of economic development is the investment in human capital。
經濟發展需要的第二個重點就是對人力資本的投資。
People can‘t help but think of the reforms carried out by India to improve its education， health care and labor skills， as the government and the media have always advocated： since independence， India’s health care and education have made substantial progress。 There is no doubt that we have realized the original plan。 But when we tied our achievements with China， we were dwarfed。 Looking at the number of patents they （China） apply for every year， they even surpass the United States in some fields。 Compared with China， India is far away。
人們不禁會想到印度為改善其教育、醫療、勞動力技能等而進行的改革，以及政府和媒體一直宣揚的那樣：自獨立以來印度的醫療衛生和教育已經取得了實質性的進步，毫無疑問，我們已經實現了當初的規劃。但當我們把成果與中國並列時，我們就相形見絀了。看看他們（中國）每年申請的專利數量，在某些領域甚至超過了美國，印度與中國相比相比，更是弗如遠甚。
The importance of human capital investment cannot be overemphasized。 The United States， South Korea， Japan and China are all growing。 The initial stage of construction is to pursue the accumulation of human capital。 Sadly， we in India have been doing nothing in this regard。 Another thing China can successfully do is to attract overseas Chinese to return home and use their professional knowledge and skills to promote economic， scientific and technological progress and development。
人力資本投資的重要性怎麼強調也不過分。美國、韓國、日本、中國，每個國家都在成長建設的最初階段都是追求人力資本的積累。可悲的是，我們印度在這方面一直無所事事。中國能夠成功地做的另一件事是吸引僑民回國，並利用他們的專業知識和技能推動經濟和科技的進步和發展。
The third point that needs attention in economic development is to ensure the improvement of competitiveness。
經濟發展需要關注的第三點是是確保提高競爭力。
In terms of competitiveness， India is far behind。 Recently， I was reading Arvind panagariya‘s India Infinity： recovering lost glory。 He gave a concise example。 In his own words， “if a household appliance， such as air conditioner or TV， needs maintenance， domestic companies in India usually send two or more workers to the door， but only one person is really doing the repair work， while the other is either carrying a bag or doing nothing， which is a great waste of human resources。” And this is just an example of the serious decline in productivity due to the abuse of our labor force。
在競爭力方面，印度遠遠落後。最近，我在讀Arvind Panagariya的《印度無限：找回失去的榮耀》，他簡潔地舉了一個例子。用他自己的話來說，“如果一個家用電器，如空調或電視需要維修，在印度家政公司通常會派兩個或更多的工人上門，但只有一人真正的在做修理工作，而另一家要麼拎包要麼無所事事，這是對人力資源極大地浪費。”而這只是我們濫用勞動力以至於生產率嚴重下降的一個例子。
印度火車
And what is China doing？ With the promotion of the opening-up policy， they are committed to transferring the agricultural labor force to the manufacturing industry， encouraging migrant workers to learn skills and providing corresponding learning conditions， which India can not do at present， which will help people engage in higher paid jobs and realize the optimization and upgrading of the industry。 They also ensure that countries expand rather than reduce openness and deregulate enterprises， so as to make domestic enterprises more competitive and increase exports， so as to achieve greater growth， which will help them benefit from and consolidate this advantage from the rapid development of globalization。
而中國在做什麼？隨著開放政策的推進，他們正致力於讓農業勞動力轉移到製造業，鼓勵農民工學習技能，並提供相應的學習條件，而這是印度目前無法做到的，這有助於人們從事報酬更高的工作，實現產業的最佳化和升級。他們還確保國家擴大而不是減少開放，給企業鬆綁，從而使國內企業更具競爭力，增加出口，從而實現更大的增長，這有助於他們從迅速發展的全球化中獲益並鞏固這一優勢。
Now let’s talk about India‘s much touted “demographic dividend”。 Here， a large and educated population， cheap labor force and talented people have no value。 Unless you provide them with opportunities to broaden their horizons and improve their personal quality， no country can prosper by plundering the due welfare of its citizens。 Therefore， in this sense， India should make some fundamental changes to its economic prospects and learn from those countries that have made changes， such as China。
現在，來談談印度備受吹捧的“人口紅利”。在這裡，龐大又受過一定教育的人口、廉價的勞動力和天賦異稟的人才卻沒有任何價值，除非你為他們提供機會，拓寬他們的視野，提高他們的個人素質，沒有一個國家能夠透過掠奪其公民應有的福利而繁榮起來。因此，從這個意義上說，印度應該對其經濟前景做出一些根本性的改變，並向那些做出改變的國家學習，比如中國。
